· Referee H. M. Jonasson · Analysis updated 22:21 UTC
Fram Reykjavik vs FH hafnarfjordur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.38 expected goals for Fram Reykjavik and 1.67 for FH hafnarfjordur, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Fram Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fram Reykjavik win
53.4% probability
Expected goals
2.38 – 1.67
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fram Reykjavik home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fram Reykjavik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.38 goals for Fram Reykjavik and 1.67 for FH hafnarfjordur, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–16.9%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–25.8%
Recent form
Fram Reykjavik
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Keflavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs KA Akureyri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-24T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Breidablik · 4-3 (W)
FH hafnarfjordur
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Keflavik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T17:00:00.000Z · A vs IA Akranes · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-09T18:15:00.000Z · A vs KA Akureyri · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-05T19:15:00.000Z · H vs KR Reykjavik · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-26T19:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 0-0 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2026-05-03T18:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 4-3 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 4-3 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 2-2 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-06-15T19:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 2-0 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-04-19T16:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 1-0 FH hafnarfjordur (Cup)
- 2024-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 3-3 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2024-05-31T19:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 3-3 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2023-06-23T19:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 0-4 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2023-04-10T19:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 2-2 FH hafnarfjordur (Úrvalsdeild)
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fram Reykjavik win, at 53.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.