· Referee G. F. Robertsson · Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Fram Reykjavik vs KA Akureyri Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for Fram Reykjavik and 1.83 for KA Akureyri, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Fram Reykjavik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 77% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fram Reykjavik win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.83
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fram Reykjavik home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
KA Akureyri away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–15.9%
- 3–25.8%
Recent form
Fram Reykjavik
- 2026-10-24T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Vikingur Reykjavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-19T19:15:00.000Z · H vs IA Akranes · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T19:15:00.000Z · H vs KR Reykjavik · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Keflavik · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T19:15:00.000Z · H vs Breidablik · 1-3 (L)
KA Akureyri
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs IBV Vestmannaeyjar · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Valur Reykjavik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjarnan · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Thor Akureyri · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FH hafnarfjordur · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T17:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 2-2 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2026-06-15T18:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 4-3 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-08-24T17:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 0-2 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-05-29T16:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 1-2 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2025-05-15T18:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 4-2 KA Akureyri (Cup)
- 2025-02-27T16:15:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 5-2 KA Akureyri (League Cup)
- 2024-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 1-4 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2024-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 1-2 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2024-06-23T17:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 2-3 KA Akureyri (Úrvalsdeild)
- 2024-06-13T18:00:00.000Z · Fram Reykjavik 0-3 KA Akureyri (Cup)
Úrvalsdeild table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vikingur Reykjavik | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 53 |
| 2 | Fram Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 45 |
| 3 | KR Reykjavik | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 44 |
| 4 | Breidablik | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | IA Akranes | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 30 |
| 6 | Keflavik | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 28 |
| 7 | Stjarnan | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -8 | 28 |
| 8 | Valur Reykjavik | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 27 |
| 9 | FH hafnarfjordur | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -12 | 21 |
| 10 | Thor Akureyri | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | -28 | 21 |
| 11 | KA Akureyri | 22 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -13 | 20 |
| 12 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -13 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fram Reykjavik win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 77% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.