Stadio Nunzio Fittipaldi · Analysis updated 12:48 UTC
Francavilla vs Città di Fasano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Francavilla and 1.13 for Città di Fasano, a combined total of 2.53. That distribution gives Francavilla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Francavilla home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Città di Fasano away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–08.0%
Recent form
Francavilla
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Forio 2014 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Gravina · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Gladiator · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Martina Franca · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Brindisi · 0-1 (L)
Città di Fasano
- 2026-05-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Paganese · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Normanna · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Martina Franca · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Barletta · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T13:30:00.000Z · Francavilla 0-2 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · Francavilla 2-2 Città di Fasano (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2025-11-02T14:00:00.000Z · Francavilla 2-3 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2025-04-27T13:00:00.000Z · Francavilla 2-0 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2024-12-15T14:00:00.000Z · Francavilla 0-1 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2023-03-05T14:00:00.000Z · Francavilla 1-2 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2022-10-30T13:30:00.000Z · Francavilla 2-0 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2022-02-20T13:30:00.000Z · Francavilla 3-1 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2021-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · Francavilla 1-2 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
- 2020-02-16T13:30:00.000Z · Francavilla 1-0 Città di Fasano (Serie D - Girone H)
Serie D - Girone H table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Martina Franca | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Turris | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 19 |
| 4 | Brindisi | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Bisceglie | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | Gravina | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Manfredonia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Fidelis Andria | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 10 | Gladiator | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 | Real Normanna | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | USD Palmese | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 | Ebolitana | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 14 | Francavilla | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 8 |
| 15 | Melfi | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Real Forio 2014 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Ischia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Nardò | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.