Stade des Alpes · Referee J. Semler · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
France U21 vs Estonia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for France U21 and 0.69 for Estonia U21, a combined total of 5.19. That distribution gives France U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 94%, with the draw at 4%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 94% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
France U21 win
93.7% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
France U21 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates France U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 94%, against 94% / 4% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for France U21 and 0.69 for Estonia U21, a combined 5.19 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 48%, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
96%
Double chance X2
6%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–09.5%
- 5–08.5%
- 3–08.4%
- 4–16.6%
- 6–06.4%
Recent form
France U21
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U18 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine U18 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iceland U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria U18 · 1-1 (D)
Estonia U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is France U21 win, at 93.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 94% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.