· Referee M. Bejtullahu · Analysis updated 19:35 UTC
France U21 vs Iceland U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for France U21 and 1.08 for Iceland U21, a combined total of 3.48. That distribution gives France U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
France U21 win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
France U21 home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates France U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 18% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for France U21 and 1.08 for Iceland U21, a combined 3.48 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 68% and both teams to score at 60%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–18.0%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
France U21
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U18 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ukraine U18 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iceland U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Austria U18 · 1-1 (D)
Iceland U21
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is France U21 win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.