· Analysis updated 10:50 UTC
Francs Borains vs KAA Gent II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.10 for KAA Gent II, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Francs Borains the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Francs Borains win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Francs Borains home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
KAA Gent II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Francs Borains to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Francs Borains and 1.10 for KAA Gent II, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Francs Borains
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs K. Lierse S.K. · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Diegem Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs RSC Anderlecht II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Lokeren-Temse · 3-0 (W)
KAA Gent II
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Brugge II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Hasselt · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Francs Borains win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.