· Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Fransta vs Friska Viljor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fransta and 1.90 for Friska Viljor, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Friska Viljor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Friska Viljor win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fransta home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Friska Viljor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friska Viljor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 28% / 22% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Fransta and 1.90 for Friska Viljor, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.2%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–16.8%
Recent form
Fransta
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Umeå · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 0-3 (L)
Friska Viljor
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fransta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Umeå · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Friska Viljor win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.