· Analysis updated 13:31 UTC
Fraserburgh vs Buckie Thistle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Fraserburgh and 2.08 for Buckie Thistle, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives Buckie Thistle the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Buckie Thistle win
53.6% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fraserburgh home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Buckie Thistle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Buckie Thistle to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Fraserburgh and 2.08 for Buckie Thistle, a combined 3.45 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.4%
- 1–19.1%
- 0–26.8%
- 0–16.6%
- 1–36.5%
Recent form
Fraserburgh
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clachnacuddin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen U21 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lossiemouth · 4-0 (W)
Buckie Thistle
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Clachnacuddin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lossiemouth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brechin · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nairn County · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Highland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brora Rangers | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 38 | 32 |
| 2 | Inverurie Loco Works | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Formartine United | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Fraserburgh | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 5 | Strathspey Thistle | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 20 |
| 6 | Forres Mechanics | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 7 | Buckie Thistle | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| 8 | Banks O' Dee | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 9 | Clachnacuddin | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 17 |
| 10 | Turriff United | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Huntly | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 12 | Nairn County | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Lossiemouth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 14 | Deveronvale | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 15 | Keith | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 16 | Invergordon | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -20 | 10 |
| 17 | Wick Academy | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -23 | 6 |
| 18 | Rothes | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -44 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Buckie Thistle win, at 53.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.