Fraserburgh vs Keith Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.79 expected goals for Fraserburgh and 1.05 for Keith, a combined total of 3.84. That distribution gives Fraserburgh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Fraserburgh win

73.6% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.79 – 1.05

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fraserburgh home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Keith away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fraserburgh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.79 goals for Fraserburgh and 1.05 for Keith, a combined 3.84 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Fraserburgh win74%

Draw15%

Keith win12%

Double chance 1X

89%

Double chance 12

85%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score61%

Correct score

2–18.8%
2–08.4%
3–18.2%
3–07.8%
1–16.3%

Recent form

Fraserburgh

2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Elgin City · 0-7 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Deveronvale · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clachnacuddin · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Aberdeen U21 · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lossiemouth · 4-0 (W)

Keith

2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Brora Rangers · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Strathspey Thistle · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Banks O' Dee · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Deveronvale · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Buckie Thistle · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Football League - Highland League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Brora Rangers	15	12	3	0	42	39
2	Inverurie Loco Works	16	9	5	2	10	32
3	Formartine United	15	8	4	3	9	28
4	Fraserburgh	14	7	5	2	16	26
5	Banks O' Dee	15	7	4	4	12	25
6	Clachnacuddin	14	6	5	3	16	23
7	Huntly	15	6	4	5	7	22
8	Strathspey Thistle	16	6	4	6	7	22
9	Forres Mechanics	15	6	3	6	1	21
10	Nairn County	15	5	5	5	-2	20
11	Buckie Thistle	14	6	1	7	8	19
12	Turriff United	15	6	1	8	-1	19
13	Deveronvale	15	5	3	7	-3	18
14	Keith	15	5	3	7	-10	18
15	Lossiemouth	15	5	3	7	-14	18
16	Invergordon	15	4	1	10	-21	13
17	Wick Academy	15	3	0	12	-27	9
18	Rothes	14	1	0	13	-50	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Fraserburgh win, at 73.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.