Fratria II vs Devnya 2005 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Fratria II and 2.03 for Devnya 2005, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Devnya 2005 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

62.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.90 – 2.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Fratria II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Devnya 2005 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 37% / 21% / 42% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Fratria II and 2.03 for Devnya 2005, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 75% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.

Match result (1X2)

Fratria II win37%

Draw21%

Devnya 2005 win42%

Double chance 1X

58%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

63%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals75%

Over 3.5 goals55%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

1–27.7%
1–17.6%
2–27.3%
2–17.2%
1–35.2%

Recent form

Fratria II

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorostol · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Devnya 2005 · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 1-1 (D)

Devnya 2005

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ustrem Donchevo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Fratria II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dorostol · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Septemvri Tervel · 2-5 (L)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Benkovski Isperih · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Third League - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ludogorets III	10	8	1	1	20	25
2	Volov Shumen	10	7	1	2	19	22
3	Chernomorets Balchik	9	6	2	1	8	20
4	Svetkavitsa 14	10	6	1	3	6	19
5	Chernolomets 1919	10	5	3	2	13	18
6	Septemvri Tervel	8	4	3	1	5	15
7	Benkovski Isperih	8	4	2	2	5	14
8	Botev Novi Pazar	8	3	3	2	4	12
9	Cherno more II	9	3	2	4	3	11
10	Septemvri Dragoevo	10	3	2	5	-8	11
11	Devnya 2005	9	3	1	5	-8	10
12	Riltzi	9	3	1	5	-10	10
13	Olympic Varna	9	3	0	6	-8	9
14	Aksakovo	7	2	1	4	-5	7
15	Ustrem Donchevo	10	2	1	7	-11	7
16	Fratria II	9	2	1	6	-17	7
17	Dorostol	9	0	1	8	-16	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.