· Analysis updated 07:29 UTC
Frechen vs Hennef 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.30 expected goals for Frechen and 1.27 for Hennef 05, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Frechen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Frechen win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
2.30 – 1.27
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Frechen home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hennef 05 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frechen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.30 goals for Frechen and 1.27 for Hennef 05, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Frechen
- 2026-10-25T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfL Vichttal · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lindenthal-Hohenlind · 2-2 (D)
Hennef 05
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs TuS BW Königsdorf · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wegberg-Beeck · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Hohkeppel · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bornheim · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:15:00.000Z · A vs Hürth · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Oberliga - Mittelrhein table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wegberg-Beeck | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | SSV Merten | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 19 |
| 3 | Eintracht Hohkeppel | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Frechen | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 17 |
| 5 | Düren Merzenich | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Lindenthal-Hohenlind | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Fortuna Köln II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | VfL Vichttal | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12 |
| 9 | Bornheim | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Siegburger SV | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Hürth | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Chlodwig Zulpich | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 13 | Hennef 05 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | TuS BW Königsdorf | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Porz | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 16 | Neunkirchen-Seelscheid | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frechen win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.