Fredrikstad Stadion · Referee Stian Rovig Sletner, Norway · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.83 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.68 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Bodo/Glimt the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bodo/Glimt win
57.6% probability
Expected goals
0.83 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fredrikstad home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bodo/Glimt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bodo/Glimt to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 18% / 24% / 58% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.83 goals for Fredrikstad and 1.68 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.7%
- 0–211.5%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Fredrikstad
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromso · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Valerenga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Stjørdals-Blink · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodo/Glimt · 1-2 (L)
Bodo/Glimt
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandefjord · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayern München · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 3 | Tromso | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 39 |
| 4 | Molde | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 37 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | -1 | 33 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 22 | 7 | 7 | 8 | -3 | 28 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | -9 | 28 |
| 11 | Ham-Kam | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 26 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -6 | 24 |
| 13 | Valerenga | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -10 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 22 | 4 | 9 | 9 | -15 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -21 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -24 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bodo/Glimt win, at 57.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.