· Analysis updated 16:06 UTC
Freiburg II vs Hessen Kassel Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Freiburg II and 1.42 for Hessen Kassel, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives Freiburg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Freiburg II win
57.4% probability
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Freiburg II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hessen Kassel away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Freiburg II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 20% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Freiburg II and 1.42 for Hessen Kassel, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.0%
- 2–26.5%
- 2–06.4%
Recent form
Freiburg II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Sandhausen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 4-3 (W)
Hessen Kassel
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC 08 Homburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Offenbach · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Kickers Offenbach | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | VfR Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Freiburg II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | TSV Steinbach | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FC 08 Homburg | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Sandhausen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Eintracht Trier | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 9 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Freiburg II win, at 57.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.