· Analysis updated 13:38 UTC
Freiburg II vs SSV Ulm 1846 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Freiburg II and 1.12 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Freiburg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Freiburg II win
64.1% probability
Expected goals
2.31 – 1.12
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Freiburg II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SSV Ulm 1846 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Freiburg II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 19% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Freiburg II and 1.12 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–07.5%
- 3–17.5%
Recent form
Freiburg II
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Sandhausen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 4-3 (W)
SSV Ulm 1846
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Sandhausen · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - SudWest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SGV Freiberg | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
| 2 | VfR Aalen | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 3 | Kickers Offenbach | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Stuttgarter Kickers | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 5 | VfR Mannheim | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 17 |
| 6 | Freiburg II | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | TSV Steinbach | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | FC 08 Homburg | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 9 | SV Sandhausen | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 16 |
| 10 | Eintracht Trier | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | Hessen Kassel | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | FSV Frankfurt | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Eintracht Frankfurt II | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | FC Astoria Walldorf | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | FSV Mainz 05 II | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Kaiserslautern II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 9 |
| 17 | SSV Ulm 1846 | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 18 | Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Freiburg II win, at 64.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.