Freiburg II vs SV Sandhausen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.31 expected goals for Freiburg II and 1.37 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 3.69. That distribution gives Freiburg II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Freiburg II win

58.5% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.31 – 1.37

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Freiburg II home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SV Sandhausen away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Freiburg II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 20% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.31 goals for Freiburg II and 1.37 for SV Sandhausen, a combined 3.69 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Freiburg II win59%

Draw20%

SV Sandhausen win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score67%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.0%
3–17.1%
2–06.7%
2–26.3%

Recent form

Freiburg II

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Sandhausen · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Trier · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TSV Steinbach · 4-3 (W)

SV Sandhausen

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Freiburg II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SGV Freiberg · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	11	6	5	0	16	23
2	VfR Aalen	11	6	3	2	9	21
3	Kickers Offenbach	11	6	2	3	7	20
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	11	6	2	3	4	20
5	VfR Mannheim	10	4	5	1	7	17
6	Freiburg II	10	4	4	2	6	16
7	TSV Steinbach	11	4	4	3	4	16
8	FC 08 Homburg	11	4	4	3	0	16
9	SV Sandhausen	11	4	4	3	-2	16
10	Eintracht Trier	11	5	1	5	-4	16
11	Hessen Kassel	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	9	3	1	5	-2	10
14	FC Astoria Walldorf	11	2	4	5	-3	10
15	FSV Mainz 05 II	11	3	1	7	-11	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	10	2	3	5	-12	9
17	SSV Ulm 1846	11	1	5	5	-7	8
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	11	1	3	7	-10	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Freiburg II win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.