· Analysis updated 13:11 UTC
Freienbach vs Eschen / Mauren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for Freienbach and 1.40 for Eschen / Mauren, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Freienbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Freienbach win
58.6% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Freienbach home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eschen / Mauren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Freienbach
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Gallen II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-07T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 3-1 (W)
Eschen / Mauren
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Freienbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendrisio · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosova · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 2-0 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2025-09-28T13:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 2-0 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2025-03-15T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-2 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2024-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-3 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-1 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2023-10-04T18:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-6 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2023-03-04T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-0 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2022-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 3-3 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2022-05-14T14:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 1-2 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2021-11-06T16:00:00.000Z · Freienbach 4-0 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Taverne | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Baden | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Collina d'Oro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Kosova | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Locarno | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Mendrisio | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Winterthur II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Widnau | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Freienbach win, at 58.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.