· Analysis updated 15:03 UTC
Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Andrézieux Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Fréjus St-Raphaël and 1.26 for Andrézieux, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Fréjus St-Raphaël the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fréjus St-Raphaël win
47.7% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fréjus St-Raphaël home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Andrézieux away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fréjus St-Raphaël to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Fréjus St-Raphaël and 1.26 for Andrézieux, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.0%
Recent form
Fréjus St-Raphaël
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andrézieux · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nimes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Priest · 3-0 (W)
Andrézieux
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyères · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon Duchere · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fréjus St-Raphaël win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.