Stade Louis Hon · Analysis updated 14:57 UTC
Fréjus St-Raphaël vs Grasse Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fréjus St-Raphaël and 1.58 for Grasse, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Grasse the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.1% probability
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fréjus St-Raphaël home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Grasse away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
69%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–17.4%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Fréjus St-Raphaël
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chasselay MDA · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Toulon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Andrézieux · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nimes · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Saint-Priest · 3-0 (W)
Grasse
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fréjus St-Raphaël · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rumilly Vallières · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Limonest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Istres · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-17T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Andrézieux · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1-0 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
- 2025-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2-1 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
- 2025-02-15T17:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1-1 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
- 2024-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 0-4 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
- 2024-02-03T17:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 0-1 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
- 2023-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 0-0 Grasse (National 2 - Group A)
- 2023-04-29T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2-1 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
- 2022-12-03T17:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 1-0 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
- 2022-03-05T17:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2-1 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
- 2021-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · Fréjus St-Raphaël 2-2 Grasse (National 2 - Group C)
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.