Hilton Park · Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Fremantle City vs Western Knights Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Fremantle City and 1.45 for Western Knights, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Fremantle City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fremantle City win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fremantle City home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Western Knights away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Fremantle City
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Kingsway · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth Glory II · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-09T09:40:00.000Z · A vs South Melbourne · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 2-1 (W)
Western Knights
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Stirling Lions · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-15T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Balcatta · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Perth Glory II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympic Kingsway · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Perth · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-27T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 3-0 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
- 2026-03-14T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 1-1 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-08-02T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 1-0 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
- 2025-05-17T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 2-3 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-08-10T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 1-4 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
- 2024-05-18T07:00:00.000Z · Fremantle City 3-0 Western Knights (Western Australia NPL)
Western Australia NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | -20 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -4 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -16 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | -25 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fremantle City win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.