Estádio Eduardo Guinle · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Friburguense vs Niteroiense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Friburguense and 1.26 for Niteroiense, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Niteroiense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.2% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Friburguense home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Niteroiense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Niteroiense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 34% / 28% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Friburguense and 1.26 for Niteroiense, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.0%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.3%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.2%
Recent form
Friburguense
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs SE Belford Roxo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Campos AA · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Paraty · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Barra Mansa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Serra Macaense · 1-0 (W)
Niteroiense
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Goytacaz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Carapebus · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs São Cristóvão RJ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Duque de Caxias · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Nova Cidade · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca - 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Niteroiense | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Duque de Caxias | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 4 | Goytacaz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Petrópolis | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 | Artsul | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Campo Grande | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Macaé | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Nova Cidade | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 10 | São Cristóvão RJ | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Audax Rio | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 12 | Carapebus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.