Friedberg vs FC Gießen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Friedberg and 1.38 for FC Gießen, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Friedberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Friedberg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Gießen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Friedberg win38%

Draw25%

FC Gießen win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

62%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–08.7%
0–18.6%
2–18.4%
1–28.3%

Recent form

Friedberg

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kassel 2 · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hünfelder SV · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bayern Alzenau · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs TuBa Pohlheim · 2-0 (W)

FC Gießen

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rot-Weiß Walldorf · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hummetroth · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T12:30:00.000Z · A vs TuBa Pohlheim · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eddersheim · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-02-24T18:30:00.000Z · Friedberg 0-4 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)
2025-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 0-2 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)
2025-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 2-5 FC Gießen (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 0-2 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)
2023-09-02T12:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 0-1 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)
2023-04-29T12:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 1-1 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)
2022-10-08T15:00:00.000Z · Friedberg 1-2 FC Gießen (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	15	10	3	2	30	33
2	Unter-Flockenbach	15	10	2	3	15	32
3	Friedberg	15	8	3	4	10	27
4	Hadamar	15	8	3	4	8	27
5	Eddersheim	15	7	4	4	2	25
6	Darmstadt 98 II	15	7	3	5	16	24
7	TuBa Pohlheim	15	7	2	6	-1	23
8	Hünfelder SV	15	7	1	7	0	22
9	Fernwald	15	4	9	2	4	21
10	Vfb Marburg	15	6	3	6	-2	21
11	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	15	6	2	7	-7	20
12	Kassel	15	5	4	6	-10	19
13	Bayern Alzenau	15	4	5	6	-3	17
14	Baunatal	15	4	4	7	-7	16
15	Hummetroth	15	3	4	8	-8	13
16	1960 Hanau	15	3	4	8	-14	13
17	Kassel 2	15	3	3	9	-12	12
18	FC Gießen	15	2	3	10	-21	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.