Friedburg / Pöndorf vs Bad Ischl Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.72 expected goals for Friedburg / Pöndorf and 1.40 for Bad Ischl, a combined total of 5.11. That distribution gives Friedburg / Pöndorf the largest share of the 1X2 market at 79%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 87% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 79% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Friedburg / Pöndorf win

78.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.72 – 1.40

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Friedburg / Pöndorf home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bad Ischl away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friedburg / Pöndorf to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 79%, against 79% / 11% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.72 goals for Friedburg / Pöndorf and 1.40 for Bad Ischl, a combined 5.11 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Friedburg / Pöndorf win79%

Draw11%

Bad Ischl win10%

Double chance 1X

90%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

21%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals87%

Over 3.5 goals74%

Both teams to score72%

Correct score

3–17.2%
4–16.7%
2–15.8%
3–05.2%
3–25.0%

Recent form

Friedburg / Pöndorf

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bad Ischl · 3-2 (W)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pregarten · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Oedt · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Union Perg · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · H vs St. Martin i.M. · 4-1 (W)

Bad Ischl

2026-06-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Friedburg / Pöndorf · 2-3 (L)
2026-06-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Ostermiething · 2-0 (W)
2026-05-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Vortuna Bad Leonfelden · 0-7 (L)
2026-05-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gschwandt · 3-2 (W)
2026-05-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bad Schallerbach · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Landesliga - Oberosterreich table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SK Vorwarts Steyr	29	18	5	6	32	59
2	Vortuna Bad Leonfelden	28	17	3	8	20	54
3	Bad Schallerbach	29	15	5	9	20	50
4	Union Perg	28	13	10	5	15	49
5	Weißkirchen / Allhaming	27	13	6	8	11	45
6	Friedburg / Pöndorf	27	12	8	7	15	44
7	Union Edelweiß	29	12	8	9	3	44
8	Mondsee	29	12	6	11	6	42
9	Ostermiething	28	12	4	12	1	40
10	Union Vöcklamarkt	28	11	6	11	-1	39
11	St. Martin i.M.	28	10	8	10	1	38
12	Oedt	25	9	5	11	5	32
13	Bad Ischl	29	9	3	17	-34	30
14	Pregarten	28	5	6	17	-21	21
15	Gschwandt	28	5	5	18	-43	20
16	Grün Weiß Micheldorf	28	4	6	18	-30	18

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Friedburg / Pöndorf win, at 78.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 87%.

A 79% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.