Frogner stadion · Analysis updated 18:24 UTC
Frigg vs Kjelsås Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Frigg and 1.99 for Kjelsås, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives Kjelsås the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.0% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Frigg home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kjelsås away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kjelsås to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 36% / 21% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Frigg and 1.99 for Kjelsås, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
64%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.1%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–35.3%
Recent form
Frigg
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vålerenga II · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Gamle Oslo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Union Carl Berner · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Konnerud · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Heming · 1-5 (L)
Kjelsås
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lørenskog · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ull/Kisa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Follo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Grorud · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.