· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Friska Viljor vs Sirius Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Friska Viljor and 3.55 for Sirius, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Sirius the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Sirius win
83.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.55
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Friska Viljor home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sirius away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sirius to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 7% / 10% / 84% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Friska Viljor and 3.55 for Sirius, a combined 4.55 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
94%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–37.9%
- 1–37.9%
- 0–47.0%
- 1–47.0%
- 0–26.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — Yes at 1.84 (model 60.7% vs market 49.9%, edge +10.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | YesValue | 1.84 | 49.9% | 60.7% | 1.65 | +10.8 |
| Goals | Over 3.5Value | 1.53 | 59.3% | 65.5% | 1.53 | +6.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.01 | 91.8% | 93.5% | 1.07 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 14.00 | 6.4% | 6.5% | 15.38 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 1.08 | 83.5% | 83.6% | 1.20 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.03 | 90.0% | 90.1% | 1.11 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 9.00 | 10.0% | 9.9% | 10.10 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 5.10 | 18.2% | 16.4% | 6.10 | -1.8 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 2.23 | 40.7% | 34.5% | 2.90 | -6.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.83 | 50.1% | 39.3% | 2.54 | -10.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Friska Viljor
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fransta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Umeå · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 1-4 (L)
Sirius
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Orgryte IS · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:20:00.000Z · H vs Degerfors IF · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Malmo FF · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sirius win, at 83.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.