Skyttis IP · Analysis updated 16:29 UTC
Friska Viljor vs Umeå FC Akademi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.58 expected goals for Friska Viljor and 1.36 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined total of 3.94. That distribution gives Friska Viljor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Friska Viljor win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.58 – 1.36
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Friska Viljor home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Umeå FC Akademi away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Friska Viljor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.58 goals for Friska Viljor and 1.36 for Umeå FC Akademi, a combined 3.94 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–06.5%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Friska Viljor
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Storfors · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Fransta · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Umeå FC Akademi · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs IFK Umeå · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 1-4 (L)
Umeå FC Akademi
- 2026-09-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs IFK Umeå · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fransta · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Umea FF · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Friska Viljor · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Storfors · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norrland table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skellefteå | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 27 |
| 1 | Kubikenborg | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Täfteå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 |
| 2 | Gottne | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | IFK Luleå | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | Lucksta | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 4 | Boden | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | IFK Östersund | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Umeå FC Akademi | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 11 |
| 5 | Friska Viljor | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Storfors | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 6 | Umea FF | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 11 |
| 7 | IFK Umeå | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -28 | 4 |
| 7 | Fransta | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -15 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Friska Viljor win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.