· Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Frosinone vs Benevento Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.26 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.98. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Frosinone win
48.2% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Frosinone home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Benevento away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Frosinone and 1.26 for Benevento, a combined 2.98 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.9%
Recent form
Frosinone
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)
Benevento
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Frosinone · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrarese · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Hellas Verona · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Ascoli · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frosinone win, at 48.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.