Frosinone vs Genoa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.73 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Frosinone the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Frosinone win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 0.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Frosinone home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frosinone to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 23% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Frosinone and 0.73 for Genoa, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Frosinone win62%

Draw23%

Genoa win15%

Double chance 1X

85%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–014.7%
2–012.9%
1–110.7%
2–19.3%
0–08.4%

Recent form

Frosinone

2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Napoli · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Benevento · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Como · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Genoa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezia · 3-2 (W)

Genoa

2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiorentina · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rapid · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Parma · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudtirol · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Frosinone · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 1-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2024-03-30T14:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 1-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2023-11-26T14:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 2-1 Genoa (Serie A)
2023-05-13T14:15:00.000Z · Frosinone 3-2 Genoa (Serie B)
2022-12-18T19:45:00.000Z · Frosinone 0-1 Genoa (Serie B)
2019-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 0-0 Genoa (Serie A)
2018-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 1-2 Genoa (Serie A)
2016-04-03T13:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 0-4 Genoa (Serie A)
2015-11-08T14:00:00.000Z · Frosinone 2-2 Genoa (Serie A)

Serie A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	6	5	1	0	10	16
2	Lazio	6	5	1	0	7	16
3	AS Roma	6	4	2	0	11	14
4	Cagliari	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	AC Milan	6	3	3	0	6	12
6	Juventus	6	3	2	1	4	11
7	Como	6	3	2	1	3	11
8	Napoli	6	3	1	2	4	10
9	Frosinone	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Atalanta	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Sassuolo	6	2	2	2	0	8
12	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Lecce	6	2	0	4	-6	6
14	Bologna	6	1	2	3	-2	5
15	Udinese	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Monza	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-6	4
18	Parma	6	1	1	4	-6	4
19	Fiorentina	6	1	1	4	-7	4
20	Venezia	6	0	0	6	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Frosinone win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.