Frýdek-Místek vs Slovácko II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Frýdek-Místek and 0.80 for Slovácko II, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Frýdek-Místek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

74.6% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.15 – 0.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Frýdek-Místek home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Slovácko II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frýdek-Místek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 31% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.15 goals for Frýdek-Místek and 0.80 for Slovácko II, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Frýdek-Místek win44%

Draw31%

Slovácko II win26%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score38%

Correct score

1–016.4%
0–014.2%
1–113.1%
0–111.4%
2–09.4%

Recent form

Frýdek-Místek

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)

Slovácko II

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Vsetín · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Zbrojovka Brno II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hranice · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T08:15:00.000Z · H vs Karviná II · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vítkovice · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. liga - MSFL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Líšeň II	11	7	4	0	16	25
2	Zbrojovka Brno II	11	7	2	2	8	23
3	Uničov	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Frýdek-Místek	11	6	3	2	9	21
5	Sigma Olomouc II	11	6	1	4	7	19
6	Hranice	11	5	2	4	5	17
7	Vítkovice	11	4	4	3	3	16
8	Unie Hlubina	11	4	3	4	4	15
9	Slovácko II	11	4	3	4	4	15
10	Uherský Brod	11	4	3	4	0	15
11	Zlín II	11	4	3	4	-3	15
12	Hodonín	11	4	2	5	1	14
13	Vrchovina	11	4	2	5	-7	14
14	Karviná II	11	3	2	6	-6	11
15	Vsetín	11	3	1	7	-13	10
16	Blansko	11	1	5	5	-12	8
17	Polanka nad Odrou	11	1	3	7	-10	6
18	Havířov	11	0	5	6	-14	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 74.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.