Stadion Stovky · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Frýdek-Místek vs Vsetín Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Frýdek-Místek and 1.00 for Vsetín, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Frýdek-Místek the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Frýdek-Místek win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Frýdek-Místek home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vsetín away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Frýdek-Místek to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Frýdek-Místek and 1.00 for Vsetín, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Recent form
Frýdek-Místek
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Uherský Brod · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Uničov · 1-1 (D)
Vsetín
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bohemians 1905 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hodonín · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Vrchovina · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Polanka nad Odrou · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Havířov · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - MSFL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Líšeň II | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 25 |
| 2 | Zbrojovka Brno II | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Uničov | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Frýdek-Místek | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc II | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 6 | Hranice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 17 |
| 7 | Vítkovice | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Unie Hlubina | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 9 | Slovácko II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 |
| 10 | Uherský Brod | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Zlín II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Hodonín | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 13 | Vrchovina | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 14 | Karviná II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 | Vsetín | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 16 | Blansko | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 17 | Polanka nad Odrou | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Havířov | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Frýdek-Místek win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.