· Analysis updated 17:55 UTC
FSV Mainz 05 II vs Kreuzlingen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.33 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 0.48 for Kreuzlingen, a combined total of 3.80. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 II win
89.9% probability
Expected goals
3.33 – 0.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FSV Mainz 05 II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kreuzlingen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 90% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.33 goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 0.48 for Kreuzlingen, a combined 3.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
10%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.7%
- 2–012.4%
- 4–011.4%
- 5–07.6%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
FSV Mainz 05 II
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn. · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)
Kreuzlingen
- 2026-10-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bulle · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Lugano II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brühl · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs YF Juventus · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 II win, at 89.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.