FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 1.58 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FSV Mainz 05 II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SSV Ulm 1846 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 23% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 1.58 for SSV Ulm 1846, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FSV Mainz 05 II win41%

Draw23%

SSV Ulm 1846 win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals64%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–110.1%
2–18.6%
1–28.0%
2–26.8%
1–06.4%

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05 II

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 0-1 (L)

SSV Ulm 1846

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Sandhausen · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Frankfurt · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-08T17:00:00.000Z · A vs VfR Aalen · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	12	7	5	0	19	26
2	VfR Aalen	12	7	3	2	11	24
3	VfR Mannheim	12	6	5	1	11	23
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	12	7	2	3	6	23
5	Kickers Offenbach	12	6	2	4	6	20
6	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
7	SV Sandhausen	12	5	4	3	-1	19
8	Eintracht Trier	12	6	1	5	-3	19
9	Freiburg II	11	4	4	3	5	16
10	TSV Steinbach	12	4	4	4	2	16
11	Hessen Kassel	12	4	2	6	-4	14
12	FSV Frankfurt	12	3	4	5	-2	13
13	Eintracht Frankfurt II	11	4	1	6	-2	13
14	FSV Mainz 05 II	12	3	2	7	-11	11
15	FC Astoria Walldorf	12	2	4	6	-5	10
16	Kaiserslautern II	12	2	4	6	-13	10
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	12	1	3	8	-13	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.