FSV Mainz 05 II vs TSV Steinbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 1.73 for TSV Steinbach, a combined total of 3.02. That distribution gives TSV Steinbach the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

TSV Steinbach win

47.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FSV Mainz 05 II home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
TSV Steinbach away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates TSV Steinbach to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 24% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for FSV Mainz 05 II and 1.73 for TSV Steinbach, a combined 3.02 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

FSV Mainz 05 II win29%

Draw24%

TSV Steinbach win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score60%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.4%
0–18.5%
0–27.3%
2–17.0%

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05 II

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs SSV Ulm 1846 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freiburg II · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hessen Kassel · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kaiserslautern II · 0-1 (L)

TSV Steinbach

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Trier · 4-0 (W)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SGV Freiberg · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC 08 Homburg · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Frankfurt II · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astoria Walldorf · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - SudWest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SGV Freiberg	13	7	6	0	19	27
2	VfR Aalen	13	8	3	2	12	27
3	VfR Mannheim	13	7	5	1	13	26
4	Stuttgarter Kickers	13	7	2	4	4	23
5	Eintracht Trier	13	7	1	5	-1	22
6	Kickers Offenbach	13	6	3	4	6	21
7	FC 08 Homburg	12	5	4	3	1	19
8	SV Sandhausen	13	5	4	4	-2	19
9	Freiburg II	12	4	5	3	5	17
10	TSV Steinbach	13	4	4	5	0	16
11	Eintracht Frankfurt II	12	5	1	6	-1	16
12	Hessen Kassel	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	FC Astoria Walldorf	13	3	4	6	-2	13
14	FSV Frankfurt	13	3	4	6	-3	13
15	Kaiserslautern II	13	2	5	6	-13	11
16	FSV Mainz 05 II	13	3	2	8	-13	11
17	SSV Ulm 1846	12	1	6	5	-7	9
18	Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.	13	2	3	8	-11	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is TSV Steinbach win, at 47.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.