MEWA Arena · Referee Max Burda, Germany · Analysis updated 19:45 UTC
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.46 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.46
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FSV Mainz 05 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
58%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.0%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.80 (model 45.4% vs market 33.3%, edge +12.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.80 | 33.3% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +12.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.0% | 67.8% | 1.47 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.20 | 42.1% | 42.2% | 2.37 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 2.88 | 32.2% | 32.1% | 3.12 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.60 | 25.7% | 25.6% | 3.91 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 57.9% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.1% | 74.3% | 1.35 | -0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.7% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -12.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-28T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-05-17T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-14T19:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-23T19:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-02-19T18:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2022-08-27T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2022-02-18T19:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2021-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.