FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.45. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

FSV Mainz 05 win

69.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

FSV Mainz 05 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hamburger SV away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

FSV Mainz 05 win69%

Draw17%

Hamburger SV win14%

Double chance 1X

86%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals86%

Over 2.5 goals67%

Over 3.5 goals45%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

2–09.5%
2–19.5%
3–07.8%
3–17.8%
1–07.8%

Recent form

FSV Mainz 05

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)

Hamburger SV

2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 5-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2026-02-20T19:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2025-10-05T15:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2018-03-03T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2017-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-2 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2017-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2016-12-17T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2016-04-30T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-0 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2015-12-05T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 3-1 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)
2015-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Hamburger SV (Bundesliga)

Bundesliga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	SC Freiburg	5	4	1	0	10	13
2	Borussia Dortmund	5	4	1	0	7	13
3	Bayern München	5	3	2	0	12	11
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	6	10
5	RB Leipzig	5	3	0	2	10	9
6	FC Augsburg	5	2	2	1	5	8
7	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	0	8
8	FSV Mainz 05	5	2	1	2	3	7
9	SV Elversberg	5	2	1	2	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	-1	6
12	Hamburger SV	5	2	0	3	-10	6
13	FC Schalke 04	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	5	1	2	2	-7	5
15	SC Paderborn 07	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	-12	4
17	1899 Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 69.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.