· Analysis updated 20:47 UTC
FSV Mainz 05 vs Paris FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.55 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.20 for Paris FC, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
2.55 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FSV Mainz 05 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paris FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FSV Mainz 05 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 17% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.55 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.20 for Paris FC, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 1–17.2%
- 3–06.5%
Recent form
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Paris FC
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lorient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Strasbourg · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Marseille · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nice · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-08T15:00:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 4-0 Paris FC (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.