Mewa Arena · Analysis updated 20:32 UTC
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.50 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
FSV Mainz 05 win
46.6% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FSV Mainz 05 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Werder Bremen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV · 5-0 (W)
Werder Bremen
- 2026-10-09T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Twente · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Augsburg · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs 1. FC Köln · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-15T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-11-01T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2025-01-31T19:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2024-09-15T15:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-03T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-09-02T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-08T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 2-2 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-15T13:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 2-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2021-04-21T18:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 1-0 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
- 2020-12-19T14:30:00.000Z · FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FSV Mainz 05 win, at 46.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.