Estadio Fernando Torres · Analysis updated 15:26 UTC
Fuenlabrada vs Torrejón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Fuenlabrada and 1.29 for Torrejón, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives Torrejón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fuenlabrada home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torrejón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Torrejón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Fuenlabrada and 1.29 for Torrejón, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 0–111.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–08.7%
- 1–28.3%
Recent form
Fuenlabrada
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-3 (L)
Torrejón
- 2026-08-28T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-24T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Rozas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Rozas · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T09:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Parla · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-03T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Alcorcón II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Móstoles | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Colonia Moscardó | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Cala Pozuelo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Unión Adarve | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Trival Valderas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Galapagar | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Torrejón | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| 10 | Leganés II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Fuenlabrada | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | RC Alcobendas | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Alcobendas Sport | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Real Aranjuez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Parla Escuela | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | SS Reyes II | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano II | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 4 |
| 18 | Villanueva Pardillo | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.