Estadio Fernando Torres · Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Fuenlabrada vs Villanueva Pardillo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.16 expected goals for Fuenlabrada and 1.07 for Villanueva Pardillo, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Fuenlabrada the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fuenlabrada win
62.3% probability
Expected goals
2.16 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fuenlabrada home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villanueva Pardillo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fuenlabrada to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.16 goals for Fuenlabrada and 1.07 for Villanueva Pardillo, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.3%
- 1–19.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 3–17.1%
Recent form
Fuenlabrada
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Parla Escuela · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villanueva Pardillo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Unión Adarve · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Torrejón · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Móstoles · 1-3 (L)
Villanueva Pardillo
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fuenlabrada · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Alcobendas Sport · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Colonia Moscardó · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:30:00.000Z · H vs SS Reyes II · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Trival Valderas · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Las Rozas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Colonia Moscardó | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | Cala Pozuelo | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Galapagar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 5 | Trival Valderas | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Móstoles | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Fuenlabrada | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Unión Adarve | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Pozuelo Alarcón | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | RC Alcobendas | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Leganés II | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Torrejón | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 13 | Parla Escuela | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Alcobendas Sport | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Aranjuez | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano II | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Villanueva Pardillo | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | SS Reyes II | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fuenlabrada win, at 62.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.