· Analysis updated 14:03 UTC
Fuerte San Francisco vs Águila Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.99 expected goals for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.84 for Águila, a combined total of 2.83. That distribution gives Águila the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Águila win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
0.99 – 1.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fuerte San Francisco home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Águila to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 20% / 23% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.99 goals for Fuerte San Francisco and 1.84 for Águila, a combined 2.83 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 54% and both teams to score at 53%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.9%
- 1–110.8%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–36.1%
Recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-01T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 2-2 (D)
Águila
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Isidro Metapán · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Águila win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.