Toho · Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Fukushima United vs Parceiro Nagano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Fukushima United and 1.22 for Parceiro Nagano, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Fukushima United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fukushima United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Parceiro Nagano away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.6%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 2.88 | 31.4% | 32.2% | 3.11 | +0.8 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.90 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1.98 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 42.0% | 41.9% | 2.39 | -0.1 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.90 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 2.02 | -0.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 26.6% | 25.9% | 3.86 | -0.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fukushima United
- 2026-10-04T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kagoshima United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Mito Hollyhock · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Parceiro Nagano · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Osaka · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Roasso Kumamoto · 1-2 (L)
Parceiro Nagano
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kitakyushu · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-21T04:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Ryukyu · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Matsumoto Yamaga · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kochi United · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Nara Club · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-29T09:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 3-1 Parceiro Nagano (J2/J3 League)
- 2026-03-08T05:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 4-2 Parceiro Nagano (J2/J3 League)
- 2025-09-28T04:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 1-4 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2025-03-23T05:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 0-2 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2024-09-29T04:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 0-0 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2024-03-20T05:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 1-2 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2023-09-09T09:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 0-1 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2023-04-30T06:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 3-2 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2022-09-18T09:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 1-0 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
- 2022-04-03T04:00:00.000Z · Fukushima United 1-1 Parceiro Nagano (J3 League)
J3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kagoshima United | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 2 | Ehime FC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 26 |
| 3 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Osaka | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Roasso Kumamoto | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 23 |
| 6 | Nara Club | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | FC Gifu | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 22 |
| 8 | Sagamihara | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 9 | FC Ryukyu | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Kanazawa | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Parceiro Nagano | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Kitakyushu | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Gainare Tottori | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 15 |
| 14 | Fukushima United | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 16 | Tochigi SC | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 17 | Biwako Shiga | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 19 | Kamatamare Sanuki | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Kochi United | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -23 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.