Craven Cottage · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Fulham and 1.24 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Fulham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.8% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fulham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Crystal Palace away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.36 | 68.8% | 71.4% | 1.40 | +2.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 71.8% | 74.3% | 1.35 | +2.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 40.9% | 42.2% | 2.37 | +1.3 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.10 | 44.3% | 45.4% | 2.20 | +1.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.00 | 31.4% | 32.1% | 3.12 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.95 | 48.7% | 49.4% | 2.02 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.85 | 51.3% | 50.6% | 1.98 | -0.7 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.36 | 68.7% | 67.8% | 1.47 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.67 | 55.7% | 54.6% | 1.83 | -1.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 59.5% | 57.7% | 1.73 | -1.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.40 | 27.7% | 25.6% | 3.91 | -2.1 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.2% | 28.6% | 3.50 | -2.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Fulham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)
Crystal Palace
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nottingham Forest · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Leeds · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznan · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2026-08-07T17:00:00.000Z · Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-01T17:30:00.000Z · Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2025-12-07T16:30:00.000Z · Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2025-03-29T12:15:00.000Z · Fulham 0-3 Crystal Palace (FA Cup)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Fulham 0-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Fulham 2-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2024-04-27T14:00:00.000Z · Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Fulham 0-0 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
- 2023-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · Fulham 2-2 Crystal Palace (Premier League)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.