· Analysis updated 15:43 UTC
Fulham vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Fulham and 3.82 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.52. That distribution gives VfB Stuttgart the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
VfB Stuttgart win
90.1% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 3.82
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fulham home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
VfB Stuttgart away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates VfB Stuttgart to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 3% / 7% / 90% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Fulham and 3.82 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined 4.52 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
10%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
97%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–310.1%
- 0–49.7%
- 0–27.9%
- 0–57.4%
- 1–37.1%
Recent form
Fulham
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Crystal Palace · 2-3 (L)
VfB Stuttgart
- 2026-10-01T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-25T14:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Heidenheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-09T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T15:00:00.000Z · Fulham 1-0 VfB Stuttgart (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is VfB Stuttgart win, at 90.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.