Predio de FADEP · Analysis updated 18:15 UTC
Fundacion Amigos vs Circulo Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.21 expected goals for Fundacion Amigos and 0.53 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined total of 1.74. That distribution gives Fundacion Amigos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 29% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 21%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fundacion Amigos win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
1.21 – 0.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fundacion Amigos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Circulo Deportivo away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fundacion Amigos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 31% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.21 goals for Fundacion Amigos and 0.53 for Circulo Deportivo, a combined 1.74 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–021.3%
- 0–017.6%
- 2–012.9%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–19.3%
Recent form
Fundacion Amigos
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
Circulo Deportivo
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Santamarina · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fundacion Amigos win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 29% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.