Predio de FADEP · Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Fundacion Amigos vs Germinal de Rawson Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Fundacion Amigos and 0.68 for Germinal de Rawson, a combined total of 1.73. That distribution gives Fundacion Amigos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 25% for over 2.5 goals and 32% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fundacion Amigos home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Germinal de Rawson away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fundacion Amigos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 33% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Fundacion Amigos and 0.68 for Germinal de Rawson, a combined 1.73 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–017.8%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.8%
Recent form
Fundacion Amigos
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guillermo Brown · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Germinal de Rawson · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T23:30:00.000Z · A vs San Martín Mendoza · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sol de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
Germinal de Rawson
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Circulo Deportivo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guillermo Brown · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundacion Amigos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Rincon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs San Martín Mendoza · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Torneo Federal A table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 32% and over 2.5 goals at 25%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.