· Analysis updated 18:59 UTC
Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Atletico el Vigia FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Fundación Lara Deportiva and 0.93 for Atletico el Vigia FC, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Fundación Lara Deportiva the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fundación Lara Deportiva win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fundación Lara Deportiva home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico el Vigia FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Fundación Lara Deportiva
- 2026-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Lara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 2-4 (L)
Atletico el Vigia FC
- 2026-10-18T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Atletico Barinas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Urena SC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-06T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Frontera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · A vs Fundación Lara Deportiva · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 2-4 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-08-23T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 2-5 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-05-20T21:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 5-0 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2026-03-25T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 2-1 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-0 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-08-03T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-1 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-06-07T21:00:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-1 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2025-04-20T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 0-3 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2024-10-20T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 2-1 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
- 2024-09-07T19:30:00.000Z · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1-2 Atletico el Vigia FC (Segunda División)
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Lara | 32 | 21 | 7 | 4 | 32 | 70 |
| 2 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 53 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 52 |
| 4 | Urena SC | 32 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 48 |
| 5 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 44 |
| 6 | Zamora FC B | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Barinas | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | -9 | 35 |
| 8 | Puerto Cabello II | 32 | 9 | 7 | 16 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Real Frontera | 31 | 4 | 3 | 24 | -43 | 15 |
| 1 | Monagas II | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 45 |
| 2 | Petare FC | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 41 |
| 3 | Aragua FC | 25 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 40 |
| 4 | Bolívar | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 40 |
| 5 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Mineros de Guyana | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | -10 | 21 |
| 7 | Marítimo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 20 |
| 8 | Atletico Avila FC | 25 | 1 | 10 | 14 | -23 | 13 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fundación Lara Deportiva win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.