· Analysis updated 14:20 UTC
Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Caracas FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Fundación Lara Deportiva and 2.90 for Caracas FC, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Caracas FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Caracas FC win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 2.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fundación Lara Deportiva home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Caracas FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caracas FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 13% / 15% / 73% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.17 goals for Fundación Lara Deportiva and 2.90 for Caracas FC, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
27%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
87%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.4%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–27.1%
- 0–36.9%
- 1–45.9%
Recent form
Fundación Lara Deportiva
- 2026-10-18T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Lara · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-14T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Yaracuyanos FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-07T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Aragua FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico el Vigia FC · 2-4 (L)
Caracas FC
- 2026-10-11T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Zamora FC · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-07T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Yaracuyanos FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Anzoátegui FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Metropolitanos FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Monagas SC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Venezuela table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anzoátegui FC | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | Atletico Avila FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 3 | Petare FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 2 |
| 4 | Marítimo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Zamora FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Barinas | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Atletico el Vigia FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Real Frontera | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| 1 | Caracas FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Aragua FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Yaracuyanos FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Fundación Lara Deportiva | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -13 | 4 |
| 1 | Rayo Zuliano | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 2 | Deportivo Lara | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Urena SC | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 4 | Trujillanos FC | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -1 | 5 |
| 1 | Monagas SC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 2 | Mineros de Guyana | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 4 | Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Caracas FC win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.