Füzesabony vs Tarpa Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.89 expected goals for Füzesabony and 0.83 for Tarpa, a combined total of 2.72. That distribution gives Füzesabony the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Füzesabony win

62.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.89 – 0.83

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Füzesabony home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tarpa away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Füzesabony to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.89 goals for Füzesabony and 0.83 for Tarpa, a combined 2.72 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Füzesabony win62%

Draw22%

Tarpa win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.4%
2–011.7%
1–110.3%
2–19.8%
3–07.4%

Recent form

Füzesabony

2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszaújváros · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ózd Sajóvölgye · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Eger · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs DEAC · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-0 (W)

Tarpa

2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kisvárda II · 0-3 (L)
2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northeast table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ózd Sajóvölgye	13	11	0	2	31	33
2	Cigand SE	13	10	2	1	25	32
3	DEAC	13	8	2	3	14	26
4	Debrecen II	13	8	1	4	10	25
5	Gödöllő	13	7	1	5	8	22
6	Kisvárda II	13	5	6	2	6	21
7	Mátészalka	13	5	5	3	6	20
8	Diósgyőr II	13	5	4	4	3	19
9	Tiszaújváros	13	5	2	6	-3	17
10	Füzesabony	13	5	2	6	-3	17
11	Eger	13	5	2	6	-12	17
12	Hajdúnánás	13	4	1	8	-17	13
13	Salgótarjáni BTC	13	4	0	9	-11	12
14	Tiszafuredi VSE	13	3	1	9	-13	10
15	Tarpa	13	3	0	10	-20	9
16	Nyiregyhaza II	13	1	1	11	-24	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Füzesabony win, at 62.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.