· Analysis updated 14:17 UTC
Fyllingsdalen vs Vard Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Fyllingsdalen and 3.37 for Vard, a combined total of 4.42. That distribution gives Vard the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Vard win
80.9% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 3.37
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Fyllingsdalen home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vard away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Vard to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 11% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Fyllingsdalen and 3.37 for Vard, a combined 4.42 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
19%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–38.1%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 0–26.9%
- 1–46.8%
Recent form
Fyllingsdalen
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Os · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Stord · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Brann II · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gneist · 1-2 (L)
Vard
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Åsane II · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stord · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fana · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sogndal II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Førde · 9-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 3 table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vard win, at 80.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.