Nacional Arena Todor Proeski · Referee Miloš Savović, Montenegro · Analysis updated 14:54 UTC
FYR Macedonia vs Latvia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for FYR Macedonia and 1.41 for Latvia, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Latvia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
FYR Macedonia home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Latvia away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Latvia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 28% / 27% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for FYR Macedonia and 1.41 for Latvia, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.9%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
FYR Macedonia
- 2026-10-03T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Scotland · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Slovenia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Switzerland · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-01T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia & Herzegovina · 0-0 (D)
Latvia
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-09T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Faroe Islands · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-03-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gibraltar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.