· Analysis updated 11:58 UTC
Gabčíkovo vs Trenčín II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Gabčíkovo and 1.65 for Trenčín II, a combined total of 3.87. That distribution gives Gabčíkovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gabčíkovo win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gabčíkovo home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trenčín II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gabčíkovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 20% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Gabčíkovo and 1.65 for Trenčín II, a combined 3.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Gabčíkovo
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Trenčín II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Veľké Ludince · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 1-1 (D)
Trenčín II
- 2026-10-04T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Nitra · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Nové Zámky · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Veľké Ludince · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Spartak Myjava · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Púchov · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. liga - West table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nitra | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 34 |
| 2 | Dunajská Lužná | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Púchov | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 22 |
| 4 | Gabčíkovo | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 20 |
| 5 | Spartak Myjava | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Beluša | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 7 | Nové Zámky | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 18 |
| 8 | Baník Prievidza | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 16 |
| 9 | MŠK Senec | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 16 |
| 10 | DAC II | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15 |
| 11 | Trenčín II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Komárno II | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
| 13 | Veľké Ludince | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 | Častkovce | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 15 | Rača | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 16 | Slovan Duslo Šaľa | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gabčíkovo win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.